Innovation is either evolution or revolution, and you must therefore carefully choose your stakeholders.
Regarding the energy transition as evolution, for instance, misses the fundamental point: the raw materials for the energy transition are not scarce and are not being consumed on a daily basis. It is therefore revolution, and one should not include stakeholders who benefit from the revolution’s failure.
The difference between evolution and revolution in innovation is that the former is more predictable in the market, while the latter fundamentally changes the market if it is successful. Therefore, it is important to check whether your organization is ready to step into the unknown or whether they only want predictable projects.
The first iPhone was a revolution; the technical components were all known, but putting them all into one multifunctional device was a successful gamble and turned the market upside down. Todays new iPhones are evolution—more of the same with fewer and fewer new features—but no longer a gamble.
Getting energy from renewable sources, with devices made from recyclable materials, makes you independent of the supplier after purchase, instead of being tied to gasoline like you are today. If you no longer burn raw materials (such oil) and if you have a choice of materials, you also don’t have cartels that can disrupt the market.
It is perfectly logical that oil companies, for example, who operate in scarcity, are not keen on this. Therefor they have been doing nothing but frustrating the energy transition for the past 40 years.
You shouldn’t look to help push it forward, those who see an innovation as a threat to their business, even if they have the money for it. They believe they will benefit from the failure of the revolution. So one moment they disrupt the market by suddenly making their product incredibly cheap, thus disrupting the renewable market. The next, they make a big announcement about entering that market themselves, only to retract that offer two years later, when they’ve disrupted investments in their renewable competitors.
This even happens “within” the renewable camp. The batteries that power the energy transition use scarce lithium. Salt-powered batteries (which the sea is literally full of) were just beginning to successfully enter the market, and the price was expected to quickly fall far below that of lithium batteries. Now, the price of lithium has suddenly plummeted, causing startups in salt-powered batteries to see their price advantage evaporate.
I see this with other innovations too: when you make the mistake of making parties/people part of, and even essential to, the innovation’s success while these parties believe they will be worse off. If you have them involved, you practically know in advance that it will fail. In the case of the energy transition, you don’t want the oil industry at climate conferences.
In my work as an innovation coach, stakeholder management is a key component, but so is stakeholder selection. The latter does mean going against the grain if it’s customary in that organization to want everyone who’s anyone to be involved.
